ENGLISH
Whatever the agressive languages of the government and the opposition may lead us to believe, the tension between the different social groups has been much reduced over then last few years. The rivalry between the erstwhile partners, Gülen and Erdoğan, and the consolidation of power by the latter, really seems to have brought a reduction of excesses of the AKP regime. While it is true that the big wheels of Gülen’s power apparatus in Turkey (like ex-Vice-President Bülent Arınç, ex-Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu and ex- President Abdullah Gül) have never been affected by the roundup of adherents of the Gülen cult, it really seems the reduction of Gülen’s influence and the purging of cult members and adherents from the Turkish system has brought a positive change.
On the negative side, Erdoğan’s consolidation of power
involved a regime change that bodes ill for the future- a so-called
“Presidential System” that is tailor-made to keep Erdoğan in power for as long
as possible, with little concern for legitimate, democratic succession!
The inherent weakness of the new system became perfectly
evident in the last municipal elections. The President openly sided with and
campaigned for the AKP candidate Binali Yıldırım. (Indeed, under the new
system, the President remains the head of the party!)
AKP remained the top vote-puller but lost the office of
mayor in every major city- most painfully in capital Ankara and mega-metropolis
Istanbul! (Erdoğan’s meteoric rise to power had come after a stint as the mayor
of Istanbul, during which time he had been hosted in the White House by none
other than George Bush Jr.)
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| Days, even weeks after Ekrem Imamoğlu's won the office of mayor, President Erdoğan and protege Binali Yıldırım were thanking the public for their election victory. (Image from my own camera.) |
The AKP, backed by President Erdoğan himself, demanded-
and got- recounts in many areas, The results hardly changed. Reluctantly giving
up on Ankara, the AKP insisted on nothing less than renewed elections in
Istanbul. The victorious rival, CHP’s Ekrem İmamoğlu, can enjoy his shaky seat
until June 23rd, when the citizens of Istanbul are once more called to the
ballot box.
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| Sibling
rivalry: little Binali Yıldırım and Ekrem İmamoğlu bickering over
the city of Istanbul (both yelling "MIIINE!") while President Erdoğan (a.k.a. "The
Long Man") orders İmamoğlu to hand over the toys. ("Give them to yor brother, Ekrem!") |
The AKP’s staggering record of election victories since
2002 have always had a shadowy side, with continous allegations of foul play.
In the early days, the party had the clear backing of the US, and it is not
hard to imagine some US know-how at work in boosting the party’s rapid rise to
power just months after its founding. A mysterious power cut in the Adana area
during the local elections of March 30th 2014 were attributed by authorities to
a cat slipping into a power station, and the interfering cat became a running joke afterwards.
Unused ballot slips have routinely been found lying around after elections,
inviting speculations as to their purpose.
The April 16th 2017 referendum for constitutional change,
introducing a “Presidential System” that would give President Erdoğan
unprecedented powers, was preceded by a blatantly unfair period of propaganda: Erdoğan’s
AKP used all the means of the state to sell the concept, Prime Minister Binali
Yıldırım enthusiastically endorsed the change that would permanently anull his
office, and supposed “opposition” MHP under the grotesquely unprincipled Devlet
Bahçeli backed Erdoğan’s cause. Those opposed to the regime change were left
with limited means to challenge the Erdoğan-AKP (plus MHP) power apparatus.
On voting day the internet immediately filled up with
visual records of cheating- some so brazen the culprits didn’t even hide it
before the camera, some so shameless, they shot selfies doing it. The "High
Election Board" (Yüksek Seçim Kurulu) abruptly decided to accept unstamped
envelopes, though the Board’s own regulations would have rendered them invalid,
and reportedly, some 2,5 million were accepted. The controversial “Presidential System”
passed by the narrowest of margins- %51.4 “for”
versus %48.6 "against”. Crowds began to assemble before the
Election Board to protest but their respective parties discouraged an
escalation of the tense situation. (See: “Vox Populi?”, 12 June-Haziran 2017)
Planted before our TV sets on the night of the recent Municipal
Elections (March 31st, 2019), we were all watching the AKP lead as expected when CHP candidate Ekram
İmamoğlu interrupted the broadcast to announce that the official tally of the state-run
Anatolian Agency conflicted with the CHP’s own bookkeeping. After some
hesitation the Election Board had to concede. There can be little doubt that
AKP candidate Binali Yıldırım would have
easily been lifted to victory if not for the meticulous attention of CHP’s team
of observers. The incident was foreshadowed in the run-up to the presidential
and parliamentary election of June 24th, 2018: during a broadcast on a
pro-government channel, the results of the upcoming general elections were
accidentally flashed on the screen- four days before anyone went to the ballot
box! See: https://odatv.com/vid_video.php?id=8F8GD
I have no reason to have confidence in the AKP. But that
doesn’t mean I have much confidence in the CHP either. The AKP’s basic
arguments against the CHP, that the party is ready to to make deals with
Kurdish seperatists, that it is endorsing the HDP, that it is arguing for the
legitimacy of the PYD though it is blatantly the Syrian version of the PKK, are
all essentialy true. Never mind that the AKP has been guilty of all the same
before the breakup with Gülen- these are all in line with US wishes; the AKP
was created specifically to satisfy those wishes and the CHP is obviously
courting US support by signaling it is ready to do the same.
The CHP’s call for “justice”, though legitimate enough,
also includes Gülen’s
operatives who are now paying for the part they played in
the Ergenekon and Balyoz (“Sledgehammer”) show trials and
the widespread, underhanded program to dismantle the secular, nationalist
Turkish Republic.
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| CHP's İmamoğlu calling the AKP's bluff and running for mayor yet again. His slogan, "everything will be very beautiful", unfortunately recall President Abdullah Gül's 2014 statement "Beautiful things will happen." Gül is known for his closenesse to Gülen's "Community". (Image from my own camera.) |
The only plausible alternative to the rivalry between the
AKP (and partners) vs. the CHP (and partners) is Doğu Perinçek’s Vatan party. Once known as the Labor or
more literally Worker’s Party, it changed its name in 2015 in a hope to attract voters
spooked by its too “communist” image. The party has its own newspaper (Aydınlık), its own TV and radio channels
(Ulusal), so manages to survive. Vatan speaks for an uncompromising
national stance, at odds with US interests; indeed several party officials,
including leader Perinçek himself, have been jailed by the Ergenekon judges with very long sentences, regaining freedom only
after the breakup of the Erdoğan-Gülen alliance. (See: "Melting the Mountain of Iron", 4 November-Kasım 2014.) Perinçek’s defence during the Ergenekon trials has become a classic; he would have been serving life had the Erdoğan- Gülen alliance gone on.
The solution to the Vatan nuisance has been to ignore it; the mainstream media act as if it doesn’t exist, not having a single member in parliament makes the party ineligible for state aid so it must always turn to its supporters, so the party never scrapes more than %1, %1.5. It must be said that Vatan often acts as its own worst enemy by acting as an apologist for all the excesses of China, North Korea, and Russia- including the Soviet era!
Though ignored by the media, Erdoğan and his advisors
seem to heed Vatan’s views and
opinions, and when they do, Vatan
supports their decisions, which lead to the spreading accusation that Perinçek
has become pro-Erdoğan.
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| Vatan's Ilker Yücel (left) still insists on his candidacy, here endorsed by party leader Doğu Perinçek. (Image from the media.) |
Of course, none of this should have anything to do with
municipal elections, which should be about how our towns and cities are run.
But that wouldn’t be Democracy alla Turca, would it? Everything has to be turned into a matter of life and death!
The elections are scheduled for the 23rd. With such a buildup, who knows to what kind of
a day will we awake on the 24th? There are rumors that the US is hoping for
widespread protests in case of an AKP victory, riots and revolution even, and
if all else fails even a chance to interfere! With its involvement in Syria,
Eastern Mediterranean, slavish support of Israel, meddling in Ukraine, a wary
eye on Russia, and buildup for an armed conflict with Iran, the US won’t just
let Turkey choose its own path- not any more than it is willing to allow
Venezuela! My hope is that the Turkish people are no longer inclined to go at each others' throats to satisfy the ambitions of politicians.
It seems Perinçek is right: when it comes down to it, this
isn’t a matter of CHP vs AKP, or the Seculars vs Erdoğan, but the Nation vs the
US!
